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2022 Outlook: Mid Cycle to Persist, but Goldilocks May Have Left the Building

Updated: Jan 26, 2022

“Post-peak” themes to watch in the new year (Fidelity Institutional) KEY TAKEAWAYS • With U.S. economic growth peaking, the maturing U.S. mid-cycle offers both a constructive expansion and a more volatile backdrop for markets that have already priced in a lot of good news. • Inflation rates are nearing peak levels and should moderate in the year ahead, but inflation pressures may still prove more persistent than expected. • The peaking global industrial cycle should help alleviate some of the extreme supply-side pressures, with the trajectory of the pandemic and the Chinese economy the biggest wild cards. • With the Fed shifting monetary policy in the direction of normalization, liquidity growth is likely to switch from a tailwind to a headwind in 2022. • A relatively constructive cyclical backdrop should prevail in 2022, but a potentially bumpier landscape for financial markets warrants a high level of portfolio diversification.

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